Job growth picked up in June despite economic uncertainty

The U.S. economy added jobs in June at a faster pace than in recent months, despite economic uncertainty stemming from trade, tax and monetary policy.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 147,000 jobs in June. That figure was above the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who projected 110,000 jobs would be added.

The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%, which was lower than economists’ expectations of 4.3%.

Job gains in the prior two months were both revised, with job creation in April revised up by 11,000 from a gain of 147,000 to 158,000; and May job gains were revised up by 5,000 from a gain of 139,000 to 144,000. Taken together, employment in April and May was 16,000 jobs higher than previously reported.

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Private sector payrolls grew by 74,000 jobs in June, lower than the 105,000 jobs that LSEG economists projected for the private sector.

Government payrolls expanded by a net 73,000 jobs in June across all levels of government. The federal government shed 7,000 jobs, with the sector down 69,000 jobs since a January peak. The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that federal employees on paid leave or receiving severance pay are counted as employed in the survey. 

State government added 47,000 jobs, mostly in education (+40,300), while local government education employment also rose (+23,200), more than offsetting the decline in federal jobs.

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The manufacturing sector shed 7,000 jobs in June, a steeper decline than the loss of 5,000 jobs that LSEG economists predicted.

Healthcare employment rose by 39,300 jobs last month, slightly lower than the average monthly gain of 43,000 the sector has seen over the last year. Most of that growth occurred in hospitals (+16,100) and in nursing and residential care facilities (+14,400).

Social assistance added 19,400 jobs in June, largely due to growth within individual and family services (+15,600).

The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, little changed from recent months. 

The number of people considered to be long-term unemployed, defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more, increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million in June, which largely offset a decrease in the prior month. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.3% of all unemployed people.

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There were 4.5 million people working part-time for economic reasons in June, having changed little from the prior month. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part-time due to a reduction in hours, or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

Multiple jobholders increased by 282,000 jobs in June and represented 5.4% of the labor force, a figure which has been little changed over the last year.

“Immigration has been a big part of the labor supply and as these demographics shift, we anticipate the unemployment rate to continue to ratchet lower with the potential to put upward pressure on wages,” Eric Teal, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, noted. “Thus, we continue to anticipate rate cuts are a ways off until we gain clarity that inflation is contained.”

“The U.S. job market continues to largely stand tall and sturdy, even as headwinds mount – but it may be a tent increasingly held up by fewer poles,” said Cory Stahle, Indeed Hiring Lab economist. “The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare and social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will likely ring hollow.”

The market viewed the June jobs report as solidifying the outlook for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged for its fifth consecutive meeting later this month. 

The probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in July declined from 23.8% a day ago to 6.7% on Thursday following the report’s release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.