The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, while the jobless rate appeared to have picked up in May as labor market conditions continue to ease.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 240,000 for the week ended May 24, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.
Worker hoarding by employers following difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic is underpinning the jobs market. Nonetheless there has been an uptick in layoffs because of economic uncertainty as President Donald Trump pursues an aggressive trade policy, which economists say is making it challenging for businesses to plan ahead.
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A U.S. trade court on Wednesday blocked most of Trump’s tariffs from going into effect in a sweeping ruling that the president overstepped his authority. Economists said the ruling, while it offered some relief, had added another layer of uncertainty over the economy.
A report from the Bank of America Institute noted a sharp rise in higher-income households receiving unemployment benefits between February and April compared to the same period last year. Its analysis of Bank of America deposit accounts also showed notable rises among lower-income as well as middle-income households in April from the same period a year ago.
Economists expect claims in June to break above their 205,000-243,000 range for this year, mostly driven by difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations, following a similar pattern in recent years. That would not suggest a material shift in labor market conditions.
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Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May 6-7 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed while policymakers continued to view labor market conditions as broadly in balance, they “assessed that there was a risk that the labor market would weaken in coming months.”
They noted that there was “considerable uncertainty” over the job market’s outlook, adding “outcomes would depend importantly on the evolution of trade policy as well as other government policies.”
The U.S. central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December as officials struggle to estimate the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which have raised the prospect of higher inflation and slower economic growth this year.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.919 million during the week ending May 17, the claims report showed. The elevated so-called continuing claims reflect companies’ hesitance to increase headcount because of the economic uncertainty.
Continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for May’s unemployment rate. The jobless rate was at 4.2% in April.
Many people who have lost their jobs are experiencing long spells of unemployment. The median duration of unemployment jumped to 10.4 weeks in April from 9.8 weeks in March.
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